The Struggle For Freedom, Justice and Equality
Saturday, March 28, 2015
Monday, February 16, 2015
UK envoy: if Libya fails it could be Somalia on the Mediterranean | World news | The Guardian
International efforts to resolve the crisis in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi must forge agreement between the warring parties to forestall the emergence of a failed state that could become a “Somalia-on-the-Mediterranean,” the UK government’s special envoy has urged.
Jonathan Powell, a veteran of the Northern Ireland peace process, warned in an interview that violent chaos in Libya will spread to its neighbours and to Europe and Britain if left unchecked.
Powell was speaking before news emerged on Sunday of the beheadings of 21 Egyptian Christians by Islamic State (Isis) fighters near Sirte and Monday’s retaliatory bombing raids by the Egyptian air force on Isis training locations and weapons stockpiles in Libya.
The brutal killings and the continuing flight of migrants via the Mediterranean coast are bleak reminders of the repercussions of the country’s breakdown. François Hollande, the French president, and Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, his Egyptian counterpart, called on Monday for the UN security council to meet over Libya and to take new measures.
“Libya is in a downward spiral that we need to reverse and turn into an upward one,” Tony Blair’s former chief of staff told the Guardian. “There is a good deal of immediacy about this. But these things don’t happen overnight. You’ve got to rebuild trust that has been badly broken.”
Powell, appointed by David Cameron last spring, is talking to the armed groups that have pushed the oil-rich north African country to the brink since its 2011 revolution, Nato and Arab military intervention and bloody regime change.
Libya, he argues, has the advantage of not being plagued by religious sectarianism as most of its 6 million people are Sunni Muslims. “If you look down a telescope from Washington or London or Brussels it is easy to make all these places look the same,” he said. “But this is a struggle for power and for money to a certain extent. It ought to be possible to reach agreement more easily than it is in Iraq or Syria.”
Friday, February 13, 2015
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Monday, February 2, 2015
UNPO: Ogaden: Refugee Council Requests Extra Protection during Upcoming Elections
Head of the Ogaden Refugee Council, Mr Ahmed Sadik, has urged Kenyan authorities to exercise extreme vigilance during upcoming Ethiopian elections on 15 May 2015. There are fears that cross-border persecutions of Ogaden refugees will increase as was seen in the run-up to the 2010 Ethiopian elections, and Mr Sadik has requested tighter security for the Ogaden refugees currently residing in Kenya.
Below is a report published in Waagacusub Media:
Mr Sadik called on the government of Kenya to be aware of Ethiopian assailants and those conspiring with them to ensure that they would not harm anyone on Kenyan territory.
The Kenya-Ogaden Community is taking all possible precautions as they have one eye on the upcoming Ethiopia elections on [15 May 2015].
The Kenya-Ogaden Community is taking all possible precautions as they have one eye on the upcoming Ethiopia elections on [15 May 2015].
Eng. Ahmed Sadik, Head of the Ogaden Refugee Council, has urged the communities and refugee leaders in Kenya to be extremely cautious.
He said, "It is time for the communities and refugee leadership to be vigilant," he said on Wednesday [28 January 2015].
Speaking with Radio Xoriyo, also known as Radio Freedom, he said Ethiopia exports its domestic problems to the neighboring countries like Kenya, Djibouti and Somalia. "Ethiopia does not hesitate to attack refugees, mainly Ogaden, Anuak and Oromo community leaders, which have fled from the brutality of its army, as was the case during the 2010 elections."
He continued, "When Ethiopian elections were happening in 2010, Ethiopian Security Forces attempted to kill activists, opposition figures and community leaders from the Ogaden region, Oromia and Gambella".
Mr Sadik added that the EPRDF-dominated government will undoubtedly control the voting and that nothing good can be expected to happen in the May 2015 election.
Human Rights Watch has accused the Ethiopian government of systematically cracking down on media ahead of the May 2015 election.
According to Africa Intelligence, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to act as mediator between the government and the ONLF, taking advantage of Erdogan's visit to Ethiopia.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol | Stratfor
Reports of heavy rocket artillery firing on the eastern parts of the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, as well as a statement made by a separatist leader, indicate the potential preparation of an offensive on the city. While this would be a significant escalation and an indicator of Russian intent to push further into Ukraine, potentially forming a much-rumored land connection to the northern border of Crimea, there are also several indicators required for such an offensive that are currently still missing.
The widespread use of Grad Multiple Launch Rocket Systems indicates that this is a planned action with significant logistical support that it involves extensive use of Russian troops, though Grad fire has been widely used throughout the conflict. There have been indications that Russian forces, including Russian Marines, have moved into the eastern Ukraine pocket controlled by pro-Russian forces, giving the Russians offensive options. Heavy artillery preparations frequently precede Russian attacks, particularly by concentrated MLRS attack. Given the amount of munitions needed to supply concentrated fire, the Russians tend not to use them casually. The presence of Grad missiles indicates the possibility of artillery preparation for a broader offensive.
The attack comes days after the Russian forces secured the Donetsk Airport, important in defending the right flank of any offensive westward. It also comes days after Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, came to Ukraine and publicly announced that a small number of U.S. Army trainers would be arriving in Ukraine. While any large-scale offensive would have been considered and planned for much longer, the decision of the United States to send Lt. Gen. Hodges could have affected the dynamic of internal Russian calculations.
In any event, we do not yet know Russia’s strategic intentions. This could simply be an attempt to signal the danger Russia could pose to their negotiating partners in the west. It could be an attempt to extend the pocket they hold modestly. It could, finally, be the opening of an offensive toward Crimea.
The Russian position in Crimea is untenable. Crimea is easily isolated should Ukranian forces strengthen or Western forces get involved. Russia holds Crimea only to the extent that the West chooses not to intervene, or to the extent that it extends a relatively wide and robustly defended land bridge from Russia to the Crimea. Crimea and the Sevastapol naval facilities are of strategic importance to Russia and the decision to hold these facilities but not extend their power makes diplomatic sense, though it is not militarily rational. Either Russia can build the geographical structure to support Crimea, or it becomes a permanent weak point in the Russian position. The Russians do not want a massive confrontation with the West at a time of economic dysfunction, yet at the same time, having made the decision to hold Crimea, they will not have a better moment for consolidation.
This is an ongoing conversation in Moscow. It is not clear that it is over. The artillery may simply be a minor probe or it could be the preface to an assault. We know that there has been a significant increase in Russian presence in the pocket, but it does not seem to us that the Russians are logistically ready for a major offensive yet.
Taking Mariupol is a first step to a broader offensive. It is also an end in itself, anchoring the southern flank in the city, though may not even be that. However, the MLRS barrages on Mariupol open the door to multiple avenues of exploitation and have clearly moved the fighting to a new level, not so much in intensity, but in raising serious questions of strategic intention.
Read more: Red Alert: Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol | Stratfor
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Friday, January 23, 2015
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